* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 114 118 121 120 113 102 94 84 69 56 39 DIS V (KT) LAND 105 114 118 121 120 113 102 94 84 69 56 39 DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 113 116 115 112 103 93 84 72 56 43 31 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 3 4 6 3 7 7 12 25 26 35 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 -3 -7 -5 -6 -3 -1 5 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 67 105 25 23 45 67 181 187 216 220 234 224 224 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.3 26.5 25.1 24.2 23.6 21.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 145 145 140 136 128 114 105 99 79 154 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.6 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 5 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 65 61 60 56 53 47 48 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 29 32 33 33 33 36 35 31 28 22 8 850 MB ENV VOR 60 52 53 54 57 58 45 42 57 42 32 38 54 200 MB DIV 39 54 40 9 8 41 46 14 23 19 53 69 68 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 1 4 0 11 7 -5 0 LAND (KM) 872 918 967 990 1003 955 877 779 635 439 222 74 49 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.5 18.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 24.9 26.5 28.3 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.0 118.7 118.9 118.9 118.7 118.0 116.7 115.5 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 10 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. -1. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 8. 9. 4. 0. -9. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 16. 15. 8. -3. -11. -21. -36. -49. -66. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.0 115.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.80 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.34 -1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.5% 30.3% 22.7% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 65.0% 50.4% 37.6% 37.5% 33.9% 20.6% 3.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.6% 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 38.4% 27.5% 20.2% 19.0% 11.4% 6.9% 1.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 18.0% 15.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX