* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 90 95 95 100 101 97 89 85 73 61 46 28 V (KT) LAND 85 90 95 95 100 101 97 89 85 73 61 46 29 V (KT) LGEM 85 89 91 93 92 91 86 80 71 59 45 33 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 2 4 3 3 4 9 13 22 30 33 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 -5 -3 -3 -1 6 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 56 79 192 288 349 35 193 219 216 216 229 223 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.0 23.9 23.2 22.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 145 143 140 134 126 113 101 94 84 95 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 65 64 58 55 56 50 48 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 28 32 34 35 34 36 33 30 25 16 850 MB ENV VOR 62 65 59 60 56 65 55 55 56 45 41 52 40 200 MB DIV 30 39 51 18 -16 52 52 61 11 13 43 77 96 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 4 2 9 17 -2 13 LAND (KM) 812 860 914 936 955 978 917 827 664 482 325 191 -34 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.4 19.8 21.4 23.1 24.9 26.6 28.4 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.9 116.7 117.3 117.8 118.8 119.4 119.5 119.1 118.6 118.0 117.0 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 5 5 6 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 10 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 5. 1. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 5. 7. 8. 7. 12. 8. 5. -3. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 10. 15. 16. 12. 4. 0. -12. -24. -39. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 115.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.20 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.45 -2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.6% 26.5% 25.6% 18.0% 13.2% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.5% 50.0% 32.7% 27.2% 20.2% 12.8% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.4% 11.6% 1.2% 0.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.5% 29.4% 19.8% 15.3% 11.6% 10.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 35.0% 14.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX