* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 88 92 100 99 98 93 86 74 60 44 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 88 92 100 99 98 93 86 74 60 44 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 82 85 87 91 93 91 84 70 55 42 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 2 3 3 3 9 13 17 22 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 -2 0 5 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 40 43 60 77 340 72 142 194 216 213 217 229 219 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.0 25.7 24.4 23.8 23.0 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 148 147 143 140 133 120 106 100 92 80 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 3 700-500 MB RH 71 73 71 69 67 66 61 57 55 51 48 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 30 29 30 35 34 37 37 37 33 28 20 850 MB ENV VOR 54 60 61 51 50 51 45 35 51 51 29 17 21 200 MB DIV 27 34 43 46 35 19 51 43 42 22 31 52 69 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 6 7 9 10 -16 LAND (KM) 746 798 856 894 936 937 892 828 751 590 393 180 55 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.4 18.1 19.1 20.5 22.2 23.9 25.5 27.2 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.8 118.4 118.9 119.3 119.0 118.0 116.7 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 13 14 12 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 13.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 8. 13. 15. 16. 10. 3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 24. 23. 18. 11. -1. -15. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 113.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.79 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.53 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.44 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 27.7% 26.4% 18.6% 13.3% 18.7% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 24.1% 46.6% 26.9% 21.2% 15.7% 17.2% 5.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.1% 15.4% 3.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.3% 29.9% 18.8% 13.9% 10.1% 12.3% 7.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 77.0% 55.0% 35.0% 21.0% 18.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX