* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 84 90 94 98 102 100 98 92 80 64 46 V (KT) LAND 75 79 84 90 94 98 102 100 98 92 80 64 46 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 86 90 93 96 97 94 88 76 61 45 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 9 5 3 0 4 9 14 22 34 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 -3 6 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 50 60 61 56 66 289 99 168 203 236 224 234 229 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.3 26.4 25.2 24.2 23.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 149 145 143 136 127 115 104 98 89 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 70 71 70 67 60 55 54 47 40 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 30 31 30 34 34 37 37 34 28 21 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 61 59 49 39 46 34 47 53 51 15 14 200 MB DIV 28 28 46 64 53 19 67 56 71 16 13 34 42 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 6 10 10 7 -16 LAND (KM) 730 758 795 839 891 933 915 892 853 724 521 342 198 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.7 18.5 19.6 21.1 22.7 24.4 26.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.3 115.2 116.0 117.1 118.0 118.9 119.6 119.5 118.6 117.8 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 17 14 14 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 9. 11. 16. 18. 13. 5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 25. 23. 17. 5. -11. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.8 112.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.15 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.57 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 26.5% 25.7% 18.3% 12.9% 18.7% 16.5% 0.0% Logistic: 18.6% 29.0% 15.0% 10.9% 9.8% 13.5% 9.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.3% 30.3% 10.4% 5.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.8% 28.6% 17.0% 11.4% 9.0% 11.4% 8.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 39.0% 74.0% 50.0% 36.0% 21.0% 20.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX