* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 88 94 102 109 108 103 98 89 75 57 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 88 94 102 109 108 103 98 89 75 57 V (KT) LGEM 70 78 84 90 94 99 102 102 96 86 73 58 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 9 5 6 1 4 5 11 15 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -3 0 0 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 47 52 46 32 16 356 41 322 236 220 210 218 232 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.1 24.8 23.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 151 150 147 144 139 132 123 110 100 96 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 74 71 73 70 68 65 59 53 50 45 40 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 29 31 32 37 39 39 40 38 36 28 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 55 66 68 63 60 73 63 75 72 61 30 200 MB DIV 37 40 35 34 45 58 49 45 30 49 19 20 31 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 -1 3 7 4 6 -1 LAND (KM) 744 753 775 820 873 951 967 960 931 864 732 579 398 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.8 20.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.7 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.8 118.0 119.0 119.8 120.1 120.0 119.4 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 21 17 14 13 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 21. 16. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 24. 32. 39. 38. 33. 28. 19. 5. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.4 111.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 241.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.60 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.9% 28.5% 27.2% 19.6% 13.8% 20.5% 18.3% 7.3% Logistic: 16.8% 30.1% 16.0% 11.4% 6.6% 14.4% 8.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 11.0% 42.5% 18.0% 9.2% 5.6% 7.5% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.2% 33.7% 20.4% 13.4% 8.7% 14.1% 9.4% 2.7% DTOPS: 21.0% 67.0% 61.0% 49.0% 39.0% 46.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX