* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 74 79 85 97 102 105 103 100 92 82 68 V (KT) LAND 65 70 74 79 85 97 102 105 103 100 92 82 68 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 76 81 86 93 98 100 98 89 77 64 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 9 9 4 3 1 3 6 12 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 2 1 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 46 52 26 17 20 350 353 67 240 217 245 223 233 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 152 151 150 146 142 136 129 120 111 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 72 72 68 66 62 57 56 53 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 26 28 32 34 37 38 40 38 36 31 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 43 44 57 50 56 57 52 49 42 55 46 200 MB DIV 44 51 46 29 45 44 39 46 39 76 17 14 13 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -7 -1 0 9 5 3 2 LAND (KM) 736 776 779 800 832 922 1008 1012 976 946 906 800 639 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.2 18.0 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.6 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.5 113.4 114.3 116.1 117.6 118.8 119.6 120.2 120.7 120.5 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 25 20 14 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 16. 21. 23. 21. 18. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 20. 32. 37. 40. 38. 35. 27. 17. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.9 110.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.8% 27.4% 26.5% 19.1% 13.3% 20.3% 18.4% 8.2% Logistic: 12.7% 27.8% 13.8% 9.5% 5.3% 16.1% 10.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 5.5% 46.0% 22.4% 10.9% 4.1% 15.0% 2.9% 0.1% Consensus: 13.0% 33.7% 20.9% 13.2% 7.6% 17.1% 10.5% 3.2% DTOPS: 29.0% 59.0% 54.0% 41.0% 34.0% 33.0% 13.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX