* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 69 74 86 92 100 102 102 97 89 81 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 69 74 86 92 100 102 102 97 89 81 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 71 75 84 90 95 96 91 82 71 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 5 4 3 2 5 11 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 2 3 3 1 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 6 SHEAR DIR 50 43 31 12 11 25 47 61 228 237 234 231 221 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.5 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 152 152 151 149 144 139 132 127 119 110 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 72 71 70 66 63 58 55 58 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 24 25 25 27 31 31 36 38 39 38 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 41 44 45 51 48 55 62 50 47 37 57 200 MB DIV 77 60 64 49 33 62 34 43 28 69 68 22 20 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -7 -4 -4 1 2 6 7 LAND (KM) 692 737 788 793 802 865 952 1010 1022 996 929 883 843 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.7 21.7 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.7 111.5 112.3 113.1 114.7 116.5 118.1 119.4 120.1 120.2 120.6 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 24 26 19 14 7 8 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 11. 19. 24. 27. 26. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 31. 37. 45. 47. 47. 42. 34. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 109.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.94 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 27.3% 27.3% 19.4% 0.0% 21.7% 20.9% 10.1% Logistic: 2.9% 9.0% 4.8% 2.4% 1.1% 7.5% 13.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 3.8% 11.4% 5.8% 1.5% 0.3% 3.8% 5.0% 0.2% Consensus: 7.8% 15.9% 12.6% 7.8% 0.4% 11.0% 13.3% 4.3% DTOPS: 23.0% 79.0% 62.0% 38.0% 31.0% 75.0% 51.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX