* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 55 65 77 94 110 113 109 107 101 97 86 V (KT) LAND 40 46 55 65 77 94 110 113 109 107 101 97 86 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 53 60 68 85 102 111 112 109 102 92 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 10 10 10 7 6 4 3 1 6 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 3 0 1 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 59 68 67 42 15 344 348 87 133 192 223 209 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 154 153 152 151 149 146 142 136 129 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 70 71 70 65 63 59 55 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 24 24 30 32 33 36 37 39 39 850 MB ENV VOR 38 36 32 28 29 40 51 51 50 64 65 82 68 200 MB DIV 90 79 72 67 56 31 62 29 32 43 48 52 30 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -7 -4 -2 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 630 653 686 735 788 808 865 930 987 974 946 923 864 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.5 113.0 114.7 116.2 117.4 118.5 119.4 120.0 120.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 23 24 26 19 14 9 8 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 59.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 9. 15. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 10. 21. 27. 22. 11. 2. -5. -11. -15. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 25. 37. 54. 70. 73. 69. 67. 61. 57. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 108.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.49 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.21 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.51 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 42.2% 28.2% 19.4% 13.6% 26.5% 37.8% 27.7% Logistic: 29.2% 62.9% 44.6% 33.5% 45.8% 57.3% 56.9% 26.5% Bayesian: 13.7% 65.6% 45.8% 32.7% 22.6% 51.4% 42.9% 2.3% Consensus: 20.6% 56.9% 39.5% 28.6% 27.3% 45.1% 45.9% 18.9% DTOPS: 16.0% 91.0% 77.0% 30.0% 27.0% 94.0% 81.0% 29.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX