* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * SELMA EP202017 10/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 33 29 31 32 34 34 35 36 37 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 21 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 76 85 96 117 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 160 160 160 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 56 38 28 3 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 108 97 92 83 83 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -8 -8 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 207 155 106 38 -29 -138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.4 89.5 89.7 89.6 89.6 89.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 12 14 25 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.3 89.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202017 SELMA 10/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 74.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202017 SELMA 10/27/17 18 UTC ## ##