* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * SELMA EP202017 10/27/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 42 45 47 50 51 51 52 52 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 39 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 20 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 58 74 91 102 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 161 160 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 5 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 79 78 76 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 15 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 66 51 42 31 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 134 110 100 85 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 263 218 176 106 35 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.1 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.5 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.7 89.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 13 15 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.8 89.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202017 SELMA 10/27/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.74 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 60.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202017 SELMA 10/27/17 12 UTC ## ##