* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 09/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 31 34 37 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 31 34 37 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 47 49 51 51 51 50 52 57 72 74 74 82 76 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -3 -2 -6 -4 -11 -9 -13 -8 -6 -20 -18 SHEAR DIR 221 222 223 225 226 229 235 232 238 244 254 259 259 SST (C) 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.5 22.9 22.2 20.9 18.9 16.8 14.7 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 107 105 103 97 90 85 75 68 67 66 67 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 40 42 46 50 49 41 35 35 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -44 -56 -69 -85 -84 -70 -25 -44 -39 -40 -16 47 200 MB DIV 20 18 21 13 11 1 30 9 6 12 34 27 44 700-850 TADV 28 24 19 17 22 6 4 -3 -1 -10 -25 -16 -4 LAND (KM) 1090 1079 1133 1207 1296 1486 1651 1865 1450 837 222 -271 -756 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.4 28.3 29.2 30.1 31.6 32.6 33.6 35.7 38.9 41.8 44.2 47.1 LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.2 148.4 148.4 148.2 147.2 145.9 143.8 139.8 133.9 126.9 120.6 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 14 24 31 28 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 3. -9. -31. -61. -90.-112.-118.-121. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 19. 17. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 6. -8. -31. -55. -77. -88.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.9 147.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 09/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 09/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX