* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 09/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 54 43 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 66 54 43 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 68 59 50 41 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 33 37 42 48 48 50 48 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 12 12 9 0 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 230 228 222 217 221 221 233 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 117 115 111 108 109 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 58 54 46 43 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 14 12 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 42 27 2 -9 -7 -31 -47 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 43 44 50 35 16 40 13 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 23 19 18 21 27 21 25 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1435 1412 1397 1357 1328 1270 1228 1229 1292 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.4 24.3 26.3 28.0 29.6 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.1 141.4 141.7 142.4 143.0 144.8 146.8 148.6 150.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -17. -25. -33. -40. -47. -52. -57. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 14. 14. 12. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -17. -21. -22. -23. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -21. -32. -43. -57. -65. -71. -72. -74. -76. -77. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.5 141.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 440.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX