* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 09/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 65 55 44 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 65 55 44 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 76 68 59 49 33 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 36 37 38 41 53 51 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 9 14 13 1 2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 228 228 222 217 220 218 228 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.3 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 122 118 115 111 108 107 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 56 59 56 48 44 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 17 17 16 13 10 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 34 26 -2 -19 -29 -44 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 58 47 60 55 29 34 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 22 24 24 19 27 23 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1445 1436 1436 1409 1393 1331 1306 1281 1284 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.7 25.7 27.6 29.3 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.1 141.2 141.7 142.1 143.7 145.4 147.4 149.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -14. -18. -27. -35. -43. -49. -54. -58. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -15. -25. -36. -52. -63. -71. -74. -77. -80. -81. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.7 141.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 478.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 09/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX