* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/31/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 76 69 60 43 30 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 83 76 69 60 43 30 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 82 76 67 57 41 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 32 32 33 48 47 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 12 10 14 6 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 223 230 230 226 220 222 219 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 126 123 120 116 113 111 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 59 60 53 45 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 19 17 16 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 47 37 35 7 -3 -19 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 84 70 50 47 33 27 24 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 21 23 25 21 26 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1431 1414 1404 1370 1344 1264 1208 1161 1148 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.3 24.1 26.1 27.7 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.2 141.3 141.4 141.8 142.2 143.6 145.4 147.4 149.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -23. -31. -36. -41. -43. -45. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -14. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -9. -16. -25. -42. -55. -64. -69. -71. -73. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.7 141.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX