* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/31/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 74 67 58 46 33 25 18 20 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 74 67 58 46 33 25 18 20 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 79 74 66 57 42 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 28 32 35 40 46 48 47 40 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 9 13 11 5 3 1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 236 229 227 235 222 224 221 230 232 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.7 25.0 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 128 126 123 118 114 111 111 114 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.5 -51.1 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 62 62 59 52 49 47 47 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 14 14 10 9 6 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 37 50 57 43 17 -6 -21 -33 -37 -60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 71 82 90 63 37 45 34 33 -1 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 16 19 25 20 26 32 30 25 25 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1434 1420 1414 1393 1380 1308 1251 1195 1156 1157 1229 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.4 23.2 25.2 26.9 28.5 30.1 31.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.3 141.3 141.3 141.5 141.7 142.8 144.3 146.2 148.3 150.7 153.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -12. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -19. -26. -32. -38. -42. -46. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 13. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -9. -13. -18. -18. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -13. -22. -34. -47. -55. -62. -60. -62. -64. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.8 141.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX