* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/31/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 75 70 61 48 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 75 70 61 48 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 79 75 67 60 44 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 26 30 33 39 48 48 49 42 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 10 9 17 8 7 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 237 229 225 222 223 220 223 222 232 251 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 132 128 126 121 117 113 111 112 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 64 64 61 54 49 46 48 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 19 20 17 15 13 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 39 45 56 61 34 10 -12 -23 -37 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 73 76 88 96 58 47 26 28 11 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 14 19 22 25 29 30 28 23 14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1433 1414 1401 1382 1372 1322 1236 1187 1172 1159 1188 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.8 18.6 19.6 20.5 22.2 23.9 25.6 27.3 29.0 30.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.5 141.5 141.5 141.6 141.7 142.4 143.8 145.3 146.9 148.9 151.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -24. -30. -36. -40. -45. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 10. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -14. -19. -23. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -19. -32. -44. -56. -63. -67. -69. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.9 141.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.60 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX