* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/31/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 73 69 63 52 42 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 73 69 63 52 42 30 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 75 72 67 61 48 35 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 14 21 26 27 34 38 46 43 41 38 42 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 6 12 8 11 8 3 3 1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 247 232 233 231 227 231 221 220 214 223 244 264 240 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 134 131 128 123 119 115 113 113 115 117 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 67 65 62 59 51 44 42 41 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 20 19 18 16 12 10 7 5 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 41 46 53 43 29 -1 -9 -21 -18 -32 -22 200 MB DIV 65 73 76 70 88 61 69 22 31 28 -7 0 -17 700-850 TADV 2 5 10 15 17 21 25 29 21 16 16 8 8 LAND (KM) 1444 1419 1401 1399 1403 1358 1270 1211 1159 1103 1057 1039 988 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.8 19.6 21.3 22.9 24.4 25.7 27.2 28.8 29.8 30.3 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.5 141.4 141.9 143.1 144.3 145.7 147.7 150.3 152.8 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -28. -33. -37. -41. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -12. -23. -33. -45. -52. -58. -61. -64. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.2 141.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.57 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.58 -1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 16.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 5.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/31/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX