* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 74 68 58 48 38 30 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 74 68 58 48 38 30 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 76 75 72 67 55 41 30 21 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 15 21 26 30 39 45 43 42 42 54 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 8 6 7 17 8 8 2 6 0 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 298 231 225 230 234 229 224 215 217 224 247 261 266 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 138 135 132 127 122 118 116 114 114 117 119 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 69 69 66 64 56 49 45 42 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 18 16 14 12 9 6 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 35 43 32 40 53 39 11 -4 -25 -28 -42 -37 200 MB DIV 53 58 66 63 67 69 38 23 26 25 -1 0 -9 700-850 TADV 1 2 7 10 15 21 20 24 18 16 16 14 10 LAND (KM) 1482 1455 1433 1425 1423 1382 1306 1227 1140 1073 1005 933 865 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 20.1 21.9 23.4 24.6 25.8 26.8 27.6 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 141.5 141.5 141.4 141.3 141.6 142.5 143.7 145.2 146.8 148.6 150.6 152.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -30. -34. -39. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -23. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -7. -17. -27. -37. -45. -52. -57. -61. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.4 141.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING