* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 70 68 58 51 41 35 28 22 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 70 68 58 51 41 35 28 22 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 70 67 57 46 35 26 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 18 23 32 36 43 47 42 39 38 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 7 7 9 13 7 5 5 6 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 309 297 249 239 238 232 227 220 215 219 221 242 266 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 138 135 129 126 121 118 116 116 119 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 71 72 67 65 60 53 46 37 35 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 20 20 17 18 14 13 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 41 42 36 53 53 32 7 15 4 -7 -17 200 MB DIV 29 53 68 49 70 90 61 31 26 34 8 -10 -4 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 9 13 17 21 22 29 15 15 8 7 LAND (KM) 1497 1454 1413 1400 1392 1363 1291 1214 1133 1044 949 838 780 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 19.3 20.8 22.3 23.9 25.2 26.1 26.8 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 141.7 141.9 141.8 141.7 141.8 142.5 143.5 144.9 146.7 148.7 151.0 153.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 18 12 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -24. -29. -34. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -3. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 0. -2. -12. -19. -29. -35. -42. -48. -51. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.0 141.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.29 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 17.4% 17.0% 11.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 2.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 7.4% 6.1% 4.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 68.0% 34.0% 19.0% 17.0% 16.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX