* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 73 71 63 55 43 36 29 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 73 73 71 63 55 43 36 29 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 70 61 49 37 27 20 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 10 17 27 38 36 45 45 47 46 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 5 6 9 10 8 6 0 5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 324 306 295 251 238 235 229 224 219 224 230 253 262 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 141 139 132 126 124 120 119 117 118 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 70 73 76 73 70 63 62 54 51 48 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 20 18 18 13 12 9 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 42 43 39 41 53 38 17 1 -12 -28 -40 200 MB DIV -9 26 49 60 56 101 63 37 30 21 2 -15 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 4 8 13 20 15 21 19 12 3 7 LAND (KM) 1592 1534 1475 1448 1426 1390 1350 1277 1175 1051 956 870 780 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.1 16.8 18.6 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.1 25.8 26.8 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.8 141.2 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.6 141.9 142.7 144.0 145.9 148.3 150.5 152.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 9 7 8 10 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 19 14 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -19. -24. -30. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 1. -7. -15. -27. -34. -41. -48. -54. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.4 140.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 19.9% 18.8% 13.2% 9.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 7.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 10.3% 7.3% 5.0% 3.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 14.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX