* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 66 65 61 55 49 40 31 24 18 15 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 66 65 61 55 49 40 31 24 18 15 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 68 66 61 53 42 31 22 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 8 9 22 30 38 41 46 44 49 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 6 10 11 9 6 5 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 314 310 291 274 230 230 228 220 221 219 225 238 250 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 142 141 136 130 126 122 119 116 115 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 70 74 75 71 67 63 58 54 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 20 20 20 19 18 14 11 9 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 40 43 42 45 40 39 51 48 28 0 -2 -16 -23 200 MB DIV 3 2 24 53 55 74 84 58 37 12 41 8 -5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 0 2 11 14 20 17 23 19 16 15 LAND (KM) 1665 1605 1546 1504 1464 1419 1384 1322 1231 1147 1087 1007 913 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.5 19.2 20.7 22.2 23.8 25.5 26.6 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 140.2 140.7 141.1 141.3 141.5 141.5 141.6 142.2 143.3 144.7 146.4 148.4 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 15 17 17 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -21. -27. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -16. -25. -34. -41. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.1 140.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.55 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.67 -2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.29 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 24.2% 16.0% 14.3% 9.5% 13.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.3% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 12.1% 6.4% 5.3% 3.4% 4.5% 2.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 27.0% 9.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX