* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 73 73 71 64 56 46 39 34 27 24 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 73 73 71 64 56 46 39 34 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 73 75 76 72 64 52 39 30 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 13 12 12 18 28 36 38 44 40 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -2 -1 0 4 4 12 7 3 3 7 4 SHEAR DIR 327 322 306 302 295 245 240 225 223 221 223 223 244 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 143 143 139 132 127 124 120 117 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 72 73 73 71 66 63 55 47 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 18 18 16 13 11 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 42 41 48 51 49 40 37 52 39 23 14 0 -8 200 MB DIV 12 23 14 34 39 38 63 70 45 16 24 30 6 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 0 6 13 17 14 21 20 20 14 LAND (KM) 1749 1676 1602 1546 1492 1426 1381 1329 1267 1188 1115 1027 948 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.8 18.5 20.1 21.4 22.8 24.3 25.7 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 139.4 140.0 140.7 141.0 141.4 141.6 141.7 142.1 142.8 143.9 145.3 147.3 149.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 15 17 17 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -4. -7. -8. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. -1. -9. -19. -26. -31. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.0 139.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.43 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.89 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.65 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 22.6% 21.2% 14.9% 10.4% 14.6% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 17.3% 6.4% 4.8% 4.6% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 17.2% 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 19.0% 10.0% 6.9% 5.5% 6.0% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 24.0% 25.0% 15.0% 11.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX