* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 68 69 71 69 64 56 46 41 32 26 20 V (KT) LAND 60 64 68 69 71 69 64 56 46 41 32 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 71 72 70 64 55 43 33 25 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 10 14 17 13 29 38 45 41 44 41 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 0 3 1 7 6 3 6 1 1 SHEAR DIR 328 327 306 296 301 260 244 232 228 226 229 226 237 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 144 142 140 134 129 125 122 119 117 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 68 71 73 71 68 67 61 55 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 19 20 19 19 17 15 15 12 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 41 51 56 40 40 55 54 49 23 12 -15 200 MB DIV -7 1 15 17 29 49 47 107 29 26 17 8 5 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 2 12 19 18 19 25 15 15 LAND (KM) 1781 1699 1618 1549 1479 1399 1357 1319 1252 1174 1092 1031 1021 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.2 16.3 18.0 19.6 21.0 22.3 23.6 25.4 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.8 140.5 141.0 141.6 142.0 142.0 142.2 142.9 143.9 145.2 147.0 149.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 17 19 15 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -21. -27. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 11. 9. 4. -4. -14. -19. -28. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.2 139.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.31 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 23.1% 20.7% 14.5% 10.2% 15.4% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 17.0% 5.9% 3.9% 4.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 17.6% 0.8% 0.2% 3.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 19.2% 9.1% 6.2% 6.1% 6.3% 4.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 5.0% 47.0% 29.0% 20.0% 13.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX