* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 56 55 51 45 38 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 56 55 51 45 38 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 60 61 60 56 48 38 28 21 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 13 15 17 28 39 50 54 54 50 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -6 -3 0 0 3 1 6 0 4 1 7 SHEAR DIR 315 322 319 302 290 276 238 239 228 225 228 232 241 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 144 143 141 136 130 124 119 117 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 69 69 76 73 68 67 68 63 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 19 18 16 15 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 35 35 43 50 41 52 64 44 22 -13 -47 200 MB DIV 2 0 1 18 3 50 55 78 48 25 13 -6 -16 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 2 10 12 8 12 13 11 8 LAND (KM) 1881 1789 1696 1624 1551 1440 1377 1342 1325 1277 1184 1136 1124 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.6 14.9 16.0 17.5 19.3 21.1 22.8 24.0 25.6 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.9 139.8 140.4 141.0 141.7 141.9 142.0 142.2 143.0 144.4 145.9 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 12 15 17 14 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -25. -34. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -6. -8. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -10. -17. -28. -36. -43. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.2 138.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.26 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.69 -2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.3% 11.1% 10.2% 6.2% 11.8% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.0% 4.1% 3.6% 2.4% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 25.0% 18.0% 14.0% 11.0% 19.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX