* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 51 51 50 47 43 34 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 51 51 50 47 43 34 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 49 49 50 48 43 37 29 22 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 15 14 18 20 30 43 51 53 53 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -6 -4 0 1 2 1 5 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 320 312 319 313 306 296 261 249 239 225 226 227 236 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 143 144 143 138 133 127 122 117 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 71 71 75 75 72 70 68 64 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 19 19 19 17 17 15 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 23 30 35 35 53 44 48 63 61 36 0 -30 200 MB DIV -19 2 2 4 9 29 73 80 74 40 30 4 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 6 15 14 15 12 13 14 LAND (KM) 1996 1891 1787 1700 1614 1482 1413 1361 1330 1294 1237 1184 1142 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.4 16.9 18.4 20.2 21.8 23.4 25.1 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 136.9 137.9 138.9 139.7 140.5 141.5 141.7 141.9 142.1 142.6 143.6 145.0 147.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 10 12 16 18 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -30. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -16. -27. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 136.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.28 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.0% 12.7% 8.1% 4.9% 11.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.6% 4.4% 2.8% 1.8% 3.7% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 6.0% 51.0% 24.0% 17.0% 11.0% 28.0% 24.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX