* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 46 47 46 47 47 42 38 30 22 16 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 46 47 46 47 47 42 38 30 22 16 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 48 48 48 47 45 40 33 26 19 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 19 18 14 17 26 35 43 50 56 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -7 -8 -2 0 0 2 1 1 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 329 320 314 321 325 292 281 252 248 235 225 223 224 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 144 143 143 141 136 129 124 119 115 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 72 73 72 77 75 71 66 68 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 18 17 18 18 16 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 25 28 32 45 54 57 52 62 46 -9 -24 200 MB DIV -21 -6 13 15 9 16 40 57 61 52 54 32 13 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -7 -6 -3 1 9 15 12 18 26 31 LAND (KM) 2108 2000 1891 1797 1702 1558 1457 1386 1363 1325 1277 1249 1257 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.4 15.0 16.1 17.6 19.3 21.1 22.8 24.8 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.9 137.9 138.8 139.7 140.9 141.5 141.8 141.8 142.2 143.0 144.1 145.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 7 8 9 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 8 10 12 16 12 7 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -15. -23. -30. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -8. -12. -20. -28. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 135.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 -1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 12.5% 7.7% 3.6% 0.0% 9.1% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 22.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 22.0% 5.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX