* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 57 58 57 51 45 36 29 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 56 57 57 58 57 51 45 36 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 56 57 57 59 59 59 54 47 37 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 15 18 15 17 15 31 40 48 57 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -7 0 2 3 7 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 325 327 317 321 322 306 295 263 245 236 230 227 230 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 143 144 144 142 137 131 126 120 114 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 70 72 75 75 70 67 64 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 19 19 20 21 21 19 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -4 7 14 22 26 45 54 51 53 66 59 31 0 200 MB DIV -2 -14 3 2 -5 35 53 85 74 75 49 41 11 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -7 -6 -2 -1 4 12 18 20 17 13 LAND (KM) 2211 2103 1996 1901 1807 1626 1487 1395 1376 1342 1301 1267 1262 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.8 17.2 18.9 20.7 22.6 24.8 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.8 135.9 136.9 137.8 138.7 140.3 141.3 141.8 141.7 142.0 142.7 143.9 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 11 9 10 14 14 8 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -12. -19. -26. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 5. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -4. -9. -19. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.1 134.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.27 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 14.0% 13.7% 9.1% 5.4% 10.7% 9.1% 4.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.7% 4.8% 3.1% 1.9% 3.7% 3.3% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 16.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX