* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/28/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 62 64 66 68 70 70 63 61 53 44 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 62 64 66 68 70 70 63 61 53 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 58 59 59 62 65 63 58 51 42 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 12 9 15 9 12 12 28 34 46 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 0 -5 -5 0 1 3 8 7 1 SHEAR DIR 305 315 317 327 326 322 288 275 246 235 224 217 215 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 144 143 142 143 142 137 131 125 117 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 70 69 70 72 74 75 75 72 67 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 19 19 20 21 23 23 20 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -8 -6 9 10 30 39 44 41 47 66 33 10 200 MB DIV 3 12 16 14 10 -1 48 65 67 66 77 68 55 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -7 -6 -6 -3 -1 4 13 15 23 30 LAND (KM) 2346 2390 2289 2182 2075 1881 1733 1596 1478 1396 1366 1331 1313 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.9 17.2 19.0 21.1 23.3 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.1 134.1 135.2 136.2 138.0 139.2 140.2 141.0 141.5 141.8 142.6 143.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 10 11 8 11 6 5 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 5. 8. 10. 6. 9. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 8. 6. -2. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 132.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.68 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 23.6% 21.3% 14.4% 9.6% 15.4% 13.7% 6.4% Logistic: 5.0% 16.6% 5.1% 3.2% 0.8% 2.3% 3.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 14.2% 8.8% 5.9% 3.5% 6.0% 5.6% 2.9% DTOPS: 15.0% 71.0% 40.0% 27.0% 18.0% 29.0% 14.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/28/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX