* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 67 70 72 72 73 70 68 62 53 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 67 70 72 72 73 70 68 62 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 63 65 67 69 70 66 60 51 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 9 9 12 9 9 5 7 15 31 43 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 1 0 -1 -6 0 -1 3 3 9 0 SHEAR DIR 340 306 311 312 331 334 332 280 257 230 226 224 218 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.6 24.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 141 141 139 137 135 131 126 120 113 106 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 69 71 71 72 71 69 73 72 75 75 70 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 22 21 22 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -10 -2 1 18 26 43 43 52 62 54 63 35 200 MB DIV 5 18 32 36 27 0 34 56 55 72 86 92 81 700-850 TADV 1 0 -4 -6 -8 -7 -3 -2 2 9 15 22 29 LAND (KM) 2276 2361 2371 2269 2167 1966 1787 1628 1484 1382 1350 1300 1248 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.3 15.0 16.2 17.8 19.8 22.1 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.3 133.3 134.3 135.3 137.2 138.9 140.2 141.2 141.8 141.9 142.6 144.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 8 9 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 11 9 10 10 10 10 7 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 15. 13. 7. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.0 131.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.70 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.2% 26.1% 24.0% 16.5% 11.0% 18.0% 15.6% 7.1% Logistic: 7.7% 18.2% 7.5% 4.7% 1.0% 3.8% 3.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 16.4% 10.7% 7.1% 4.0% 7.6% 6.3% 3.2% DTOPS: 47.0% 83.0% 53.0% 31.0% 27.0% 55.0% 22.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING