* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 66 68 69 71 73 72 72 70 62 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 66 68 69 71 73 72 72 70 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 65 67 67 67 68 68 67 65 59 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 10 15 11 9 5 6 5 20 29 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 355 339 320 300 315 318 322 280 274 218 223 213 218 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.0 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 142 142 141 138 136 134 130 124 117 108 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 72 74 72 72 74 78 79 74 68 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 21 21 23 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -17 -12 -5 3 25 31 42 55 58 56 71 38 200 MB DIV 27 5 5 10 17 25 13 50 68 84 73 100 72 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 -1 -5 -6 -4 -2 -1 3 10 15 26 LAND (KM) 2186 2269 2353 2395 2297 2065 1875 1712 1554 1434 1369 1323 1289 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 15.1 16.5 18.6 20.9 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 131.0 132.1 133.1 134.1 136.3 138.1 139.6 140.9 141.6 141.8 142.2 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 12 9 12 7 11 12 8 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 14. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. 17. 17. 15. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.9 129.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.56 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.08 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 24.7% 22.9% 15.9% 10.4% 17.0% 15.3% 7.1% Logistic: 12.3% 22.7% 8.7% 5.3% 1.8% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% Bayesian: 1.7% 11.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 1.9% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 19.6% 10.8% 7.1% 4.3% 7.5% 6.5% 3.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 10.0% 6.0% 3.0% 17.0% 29.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX