* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 59 59 61 64 67 68 68 70 67 62 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 59 59 61 64 67 68 68 70 67 62 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 59 60 61 62 63 65 65 63 57 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 9 12 16 11 9 7 8 19 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 -1 0 -5 -4 -1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 6 11 335 319 323 338 344 331 276 280 218 223 211 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 142 143 141 140 137 135 132 127 120 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 72 73 72 72 72 73 78 75 69 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 15 17 19 19 19 22 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -21 -13 -4 18 28 36 36 46 52 49 36 200 MB DIV 58 41 27 15 17 31 30 47 37 56 67 102 97 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 -1 -4 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 4 10 21 LAND (KM) 2093 2179 2269 2357 2413 2187 1998 1819 1630 1494 1415 1392 1383 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.6 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.7 15.9 17.7 19.8 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.8 130.9 132.0 133.0 135.1 137.0 138.7 140.3 141.2 141.5 141.5 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 11 15 15 15 12 6 8 6 3 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 12. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 20. 17. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 128.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.47 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.73 -3.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 24.3% 23.5% 16.4% 10.5% 17.6% 16.6% 7.9% Logistic: 8.3% 19.6% 9.8% 6.1% 1.0% 3.7% 3.4% 4.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 7.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% Consensus: 8.5% 17.0% 11.4% 7.6% 3.9% 7.5% 6.9% 4.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 26.0% 17.0% 12.0% 7.0% 15.0% 38.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX