* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP152018 08/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 57 62 65 67 69 68 68 67 67 65 60 V (KT) LAND 45 52 57 62 65 67 69 68 68 67 67 65 60 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 60 62 65 66 66 65 64 64 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 6 8 15 17 14 15 9 11 21 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 352 351 4 3 355 338 345 349 339 325 279 227 222 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 141 141 143 141 141 137 136 133 127 119 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 73 72 71 70 71 69 70 72 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -25 -20 -19 -17 -5 10 20 28 23 22 40 37 200 MB DIV 58 62 70 42 9 6 9 15 46 38 54 62 86 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -4 -1 3 10 LAND (KM) 1909 1998 2091 2170 2246 2401 2221 2018 1843 1664 1501 1371 1308 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 14.6 16.0 17.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.2 128.4 129.5 130.6 132.6 134.8 136.8 138.5 140.0 141.1 141.9 142.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 14 10 11 15 14 13 7 7 6 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 23. 23. 22. 22. 20. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 126.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 MIRIAM 08/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 7.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.75 -4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.0% 45.4% 32.1% 20.6% 14.2% 22.2% 21.2% 9.6% Logistic: 41.2% 62.0% 46.4% 38.8% 8.4% 28.9% 11.0% 14.6% Bayesian: 37.9% 48.2% 27.0% 14.8% 4.9% 23.9% 7.0% 0.1% Consensus: 34.0% 51.9% 35.2% 24.7% 9.2% 25.0% 13.0% 8.1% DTOPS: 20.0% 57.0% 42.0% 26.0% 12.0% 71.0% 32.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 MIRIAM 08/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX