* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152018 08/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 58 64 68 70 73 74 72 75 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 58 64 68 70 73 74 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 46 50 53 55 56 57 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 5 6 6 14 8 9 10 3 5 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 4 0 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 334 356 20 15 20 355 324 334 329 337 312 256 222 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 142 141 141 142 141 140 136 134 131 125 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 74 73 72 73 71 71 71 72 75 76 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 12 13 16 17 17 18 19 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -29 -22 -16 -23 -12 1 18 29 35 33 35 38 200 MB DIV 45 58 68 67 38 6 0 48 43 59 58 100 79 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 7 LAND (KM) 1833 1913 1998 2089 2175 2307 2347 2139 1932 1748 1574 1440 1352 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.5 15.1 16.3 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.9 127.1 128.3 129.4 131.5 133.5 135.5 137.5 139.2 140.7 141.6 142.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 24 15 10 13 14 16 12 7 8 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 39. 37. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 124.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.76 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.79 -4.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.82 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 31.3% 26.1% 17.9% 12.3% 20.3% 20.7% 11.1% Logistic: 25.9% 61.1% 42.4% 32.4% 5.1% 33.2% 12.8% 16.9% Bayesian: 9.8% 36.7% 14.4% 5.5% 1.5% 18.4% 7.4% 0.2% Consensus: 17.4% 43.0% 27.6% 18.6% 6.3% 24.0% 13.7% 9.4% DTOPS: 7.0% 46.0% 23.0% 11.0% 4.0% 11.0% 31.0% 40.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX