* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152018 08/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 56 63 72 75 79 83 86 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 50 56 63 72 75 79 83 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 47 51 54 58 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 9 6 6 6 8 11 11 10 9 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 356 340 348 20 20 8 11 15 18 17 12 17 11 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 143 142 142 144 143 139 135 137 138 137 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 76 75 74 74 73 73 75 76 79 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 16 16 16 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -42 -31 -25 -14 -7 2 10 10 19 11 11 13 200 MB DIV 58 40 32 34 42 4 8 23 42 33 41 67 71 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 2 -1 -2 -3 -5 -7 -4 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1752 1817 1894 1984 2078 2261 2414 2193 2035 1903 1798 1695 1601 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.3 12.5 11.7 11.3 11.5 12.5 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.7 125.9 127.2 128.4 130.8 133.1 135.6 137.6 139.2 140.2 140.7 140.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 9 6 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 22 26 16 12 14 5 8 12 14 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 10. 10. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 26. 33. 42. 45. 49. 53. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 123.6 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.67 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 25.3% 22.4% 15.3% 10.3% 18.3% 19.7% 11.0% Logistic: 12.5% 47.6% 27.6% 18.6% 4.1% 24.7% 14.8% 26.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 26.3% 6.7% 1.8% 0.9% 15.8% 10.1% 0.6% Consensus: 8.8% 33.1% 18.9% 11.9% 5.1% 19.6% 14.9% 12.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152018 FIFTEEN 08/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX