* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 52 49 48 49 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 224 222 229 239 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 144 146 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 105 103 100 95 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 42 43 33 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 8 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 960 979 980 993 1145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 20.4 21.4 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 168.1 168.5 168.8 169.1 169.4 170.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 8 10 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 20 24 25 20 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -32. -49. -64. -74. -76. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -13. -21. -30. -37. -42. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 168.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX