* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 26 24 23 21 22 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 26 24 23 21 22 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 32 29 25 23 22 22 23 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 41 42 47 52 51 45 45 29 8 14 13 6 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 4 5 4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 235 233 227 227 228 230 244 223 26 17 14 334 352 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 27.9 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 149 150 150 151 146 136 127 118 117 117 115 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -55.2 -55.4 -56.0 -56.7 -57.5 -57.6 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 55 54 54 55 53 53 58 62 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 79 85 96 94 87 81 72 43 35 32 47 27 200 MB DIV 61 58 49 62 55 49 48 1 -1 27 38 17 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 2 7 11 19 10 3 2 -7 2 -2 LAND (KM) 754 780 807 838 876 920 1091 1450 1841 2056 2059 2250 2489 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 19.3 19.8 21.5 24.2 27.1 29.7 31.3 31.7 33.1 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 166.0 166.4 166.7 167.3 167.9 168.7 170.2 173.0 176.1 177.7 177.5 178.9 181.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 6 8 8 12 17 19 15 6 5 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 18 18 23 18 6 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -35. -40. -43. -38. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.5 166.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING