* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 25 23 22 26 31 37 37 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 27 25 23 22 26 31 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 29 25 21 19 19 20 23 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 41 40 48 53 47 43 35 25 8 9 6 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 2 3 -1 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 237 236 232 229 230 223 226 239 242 248 298 283 336 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 148 148 149 146 140 132 124 121 114 107 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -55.5 -56.1 -56.5 -57.1 -58.0 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 53 55 56 58 59 58 59 61 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 72 73 81 88 81 82 63 52 22 24 21 -12 200 MB DIV 21 53 67 50 71 75 56 49 -15 44 37 16 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 5 11 20 27 17 8 13 6 10 LAND (KM) 642 686 732 761 794 824 881 1093 1389 1671 1913 2171 2430 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.3 19.6 21.0 23.1 25.6 28.0 30.1 31.9 34.2 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 165.0 165.5 166.0 166.5 167.0 167.7 168.3 169.8 171.9 173.9 175.6 177.1 178.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 9 13 14 14 13 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 18 16 15 18 15 10 1 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 21. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -27. -38. -43. -44. -39. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -9. -4. 2. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 165.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX