* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 25 23 20 19 22 24 27 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 25 23 20 19 22 24 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 40 43 43 48 46 46 39 26 5 14 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 4 5 7 7 4 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 241 240 238 236 230 236 228 237 227 246 316 285 303 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 147 147 149 148 141 135 127 120 114 111 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -55.1 -55.5 -56.1 -56.8 -57.7 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 43 47 50 51 52 56 57 56 54 54 57 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 64 71 73 78 82 86 81 60 33 23 58 69 200 MB DIV 28 21 39 51 30 71 63 49 44 14 30 43 27 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 0 8 12 18 14 9 7 5 -1 LAND (KM) 582 643 708 742 778 805 897 1069 1316 1643 2017 2300 2538 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.2 19.3 20.5 22.6 24.9 27.4 29.9 32.3 34.0 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 164.3 165.1 165.8 166.3 166.7 167.4 168.5 169.8 171.4 173.7 176.6 178.9 180.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 5 10 12 14 15 17 15 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 20 20 20 17 15 11 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -25. -38. -44. -46. -44. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -8. -6. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 164.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX