* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 27 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 39 41 40 51 45 49 42 28 6 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 5 7 7 8 3 -1 -5 -6 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 247 242 242 240 237 234 232 238 233 217 133 340 304 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 146 147 148 149 146 138 127 122 117 114 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -56.3 -57.0 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 41 43 47 51 50 54 56 59 56 57 57 65 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 52 65 71 72 81 79 76 60 27 17 47 72 200 MB DIV 20 26 16 37 67 50 73 45 64 0 45 58 37 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 1 4 13 22 21 11 5 -1 4 LAND (KM) 501 565 633 676 721 777 800 907 1166 1500 1869 2153 2361 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.8 21.2 23.5 26.5 29.3 31.7 33.4 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.1 164.9 165.5 166.0 166.9 167.5 168.5 170.2 172.4 175.2 177.5 179.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 6 10 14 17 17 15 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 19 19 20 17 18 12 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -25. -40. -51. -52. -48. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -14. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 163.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX