* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 25 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 25 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 32 34 38 43 51 47 49 42 33 2 4 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 3 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 248 245 242 241 241 234 233 230 229 216 221 33 354 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.3 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 147 147 148 149 148 139 131 126 119 113 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -54.9 -55.6 -56.4 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 47 49 51 57 56 56 55 55 62 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 51 64 72 80 85 86 79 62 29 40 53 200 MB DIV -4 22 40 36 47 18 42 66 75 41 9 20 19 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 8 12 17 10 6 2 0 LAND (KM) 441 513 590 642 697 771 840 930 1123 1418 1749 2059 2342 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.7 20.7 22.9 25.9 28.4 30.3 32.6 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 162.7 163.5 164.4 165.1 165.8 166.8 167.8 168.8 170.0 172.0 174.7 176.9 178.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 9 14 16 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 20 19 19 17 19 14 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 748 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -12. -24. -39. -51. -53. -47. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -12. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.1 162.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX