* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 24 23 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 31 33 37 41 52 49 47 37 22 7 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 5 6 6 9 8 4 1 2 -1 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 257 250 248 242 243 239 233 218 231 219 193 79 360 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 146 147 147 147 149 143 136 127 124 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.8 -55.4 -55.4 -56.1 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 45 48 50 57 58 57 54 52 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 35 43 50 60 67 73 83 78 75 69 45 37 39 200 MB DIV -17 -10 17 40 44 60 41 61 68 62 24 21 8 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -2 0 2 7 17 20 28 20 9 4 LAND (KM) 365 412 464 534 612 706 713 804 1034 1325 1594 1931 2292 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.1 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.4 20.2 22.0 24.7 27.2 29.3 31.5 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 161.7 162.3 162.9 163.9 164.8 166.0 166.4 167.6 169.5 171.6 173.5 176.1 178.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 9 7 5 7 13 16 15 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 37 34 30 22 19 18 16 17 10 3 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -10. -23. -38. -50. -56. -50. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 161.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX