* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 29 28 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 27 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 33 34 33 32 40 51 53 48 36 22 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 4 8 6 8 6 4 0 -2 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 260 258 254 255 248 244 235 223 218 223 203 95 12 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 144 145 147 149 149 146 140 133 127 119 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.6 -55.6 -56.2 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 44 44 43 43 45 50 51 57 58 57 53 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 12 13 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 44 54 66 77 85 92 83 72 59 27 31 200 MB DIV 9 -9 -9 21 43 65 21 45 42 62 27 39 11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 2 14 13 29 15 8 0 LAND (KM) 297 347 411 475 543 660 756 838 936 1117 1370 1696 2051 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.1 19.2 20.1 21.5 23.4 25.5 27.6 30.1 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 160.7 161.5 162.4 163.2 164.0 165.4 166.8 167.9 168.8 170.1 171.9 174.2 176.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 11 12 15 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 38 41 39 34 27 21 15 19 14 8 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -24. -38. -49. -54. -49. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -8. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -16. -23. -26. -25. -21. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 160.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX