* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 39 36 34 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 39 36 34 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 39 37 32 28 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 35 36 35 35 43 55 50 49 39 24 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 4 2 1 8 9 7 6 4 0 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 257 256 256 251 264 252 236 226 216 231 226 211 108 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.3 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 145 145 147 147 147 146 143 138 129 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -55.2 -55.4 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.5 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 46 45 44 44 45 49 50 54 60 61 58 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 42 49 57 72 77 88 83 68 48 34 28 200 MB DIV 6 8 -14 -22 28 60 57 40 69 74 38 10 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 2 7 17 18 26 16 8 LAND (KM) 260 275 294 358 433 565 688 769 803 932 1175 1527 1926 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.8 20.7 22.2 24.2 26.5 29.0 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 159.8 160.4 160.9 161.8 162.7 164.4 166.0 167.1 167.6 168.6 170.3 172.9 176.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 8 8 7 7 9 13 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 38 41 38 24 17 15 17 12 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -25. -37. -48. -55. -55. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -11. -15. -20. -28. -33. -36. -36. -33. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.5 159.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX