* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 34 29 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 34 29 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 31 27 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 39 39 38 40 44 53 52 50 46 36 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 3 2 4 10 9 8 4 0 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 268 260 260 262 258 265 239 231 223 229 233 223 248 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.5 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 143 144 146 146 146 146 147 141 133 126 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 52 47 45 43 44 45 50 53 59 56 54 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 40 42 49 65 73 81 89 90 77 60 24 200 MB DIV -12 -3 -6 -18 -24 39 46 19 59 49 52 11 -3 700-850 TADV 0 1 -3 -1 -3 -3 2 4 14 23 22 12 8 LAND (KM) 211 221 215 255 312 449 575 671 758 879 1108 1389 1710 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.3 22.9 25.5 28.0 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 159.1 159.6 160.1 160.9 161.7 163.5 165.0 166.1 167.1 168.3 170.0 171.9 174.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 8 8 8 6 6 8 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 23 34 38 33 19 15 16 15 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -26. -39. -49. -58. -59. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -20. -22. -26. -31. -35. -37. -40. -38. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.6 159.1 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX