* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 34 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 45 41 36 33 27 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 31 37 39 37 41 43 53 51 44 33 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 4 2 2 7 10 8 4 6 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 267 270 265 262 264 268 251 233 222 212 215 205 205 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 139 142 144 145 146 146 145 143 136 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -55.5 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 46 44 44 50 53 57 60 65 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 32 36 34 43 43 58 76 81 93 87 66 56 35 200 MB DIV -14 -17 0 -3 -11 25 61 57 39 60 61 59 14 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 5 8 16 17 31 17 LAND (KM) 178 171 178 212 227 334 470 593 698 773 878 1084 1377 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.5 21.2 22.3 24.0 26.3 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 158.3 158.8 159.2 159.9 160.5 162.2 163.9 165.3 166.5 167.3 168.1 169.4 171.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 8 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 36 28 20 21 28 39 26 17 15 17 12 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -17. -25. -36. -46. -53. -54. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -21. -27. -32. -37. -43. -48. -51. -42. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.7 158.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX