* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 45 38 32 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 45 38 32 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 45 38 33 29 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 29 31 37 37 36 39 50 52 51 33 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 10 7 3 2 4 9 6 10 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 254 266 268 267 264 265 266 243 231 222 219 214 201 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 138 140 142 143 145 145 143 142 141 132 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -55.5 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 48 47 46 47 52 55 60 61 59 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 10 11 11 12 11 11 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 37 35 41 45 66 78 88 89 65 44 22 200 MB DIV 6 -11 -12 7 3 -19 48 56 54 49 50 55 4 700-850 TADV 7 4 0 0 -2 -5 -1 1 1 11 13 18 22 LAND (KM) 223 208 201 216 234 286 349 433 541 609 652 790 1112 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.2 20.9 21.7 22.7 24.6 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 158.4 158.8 159.1 159.5 159.8 161.3 162.3 163.5 164.9 165.7 166.1 167.0 169.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 3 5 6 5 7 6 5 8 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 28 22 20 21 37 39 31 21 20 19 12 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -23. -31. -40. -47. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -14. -14. -12. -9. -6. -4. -3. -4. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -23. -28. -33. -37. -39. -41. -45. -49. -45. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 158.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX