* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 48 40 34 29 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 48 40 34 29 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 47 39 33 29 24 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 29 27 31 41 41 42 46 55 50 49 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 7 12 8 0 0 8 6 4 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 250 256 273 275 270 269 280 255 249 236 221 226 209 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.4 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 134 137 138 142 143 145 145 146 144 139 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.9 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 53 49 43 42 49 52 55 59 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 16 15 15 13 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 21 23 35 44 41 52 60 76 85 96 88 75 49 200 MB DIV 36 3 -7 -2 20 -21 21 36 63 45 45 48 48 700-850 TADV 14 7 4 4 2 -4 0 0 7 8 18 10 19 LAND (KM) 243 211 178 175 187 251 327 423 522 614 717 913 1194 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.8 19.9 19.8 19.8 19.9 20.3 21.3 23.0 25.1 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 158.3 158.3 158.2 158.7 159.2 160.6 161.9 163.2 164.5 165.7 166.7 168.1 169.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 5 6 7 6 7 7 9 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 36 27 20 31 39 35 24 19 19 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -18. -24. -32. -39. -46. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -10. -16. -18. -19. -15. -11. -7. -4. -4. -4. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. -13. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -20. -26. -31. -37. -40. -45. -47. -51. -56. -56. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 158.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX