* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 77 70 62 50 38 29 25 25 21 20 28 V (KT) LAND 90 84 77 70 62 50 38 29 25 25 21 20 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 75 67 60 49 40 33 27 23 19 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 23 29 32 40 46 44 48 51 51 47 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 15 12 8 7 5 -1 6 5 3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 251 243 255 270 280 269 280 257 244 236 231 224 202 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 136 141 144 144 144 146 146 143 135 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 55 53 44 41 45 53 53 54 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 14 14 13 11 11 10 11 12 11 11 17 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 27 35 49 48 58 70 79 101 96 88 64 200 MB DIV 34 47 11 -5 -10 -1 3 41 59 37 38 27 57 700-850 TADV 13 16 11 7 2 -1 -4 0 5 10 19 18 34 LAND (KM) 211 198 189 156 123 179 311 414 479 572 721 868 1077 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.3 19.9 19.9 20.2 20.9 22.0 24.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 157.9 157.9 157.9 158.1 158.3 159.9 161.8 163.1 164.0 165.2 166.8 168.0 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 8 8 5 6 8 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 37 34 19 39 36 27 20 20 15 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -27. -31. -33. -35. -39. -43. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -11. -11. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -28. -40. -52. -61. -65. -65. -69. -70. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.9 157.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX