* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 88 78 69 53 40 30 24 24 22 22 21 V (KT) LAND 100 95 88 78 69 53 40 30 24 24 22 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 100 94 86 77 69 55 45 38 32 27 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 26 31 35 41 44 46 48 51 41 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 13 13 7 4 3 0 8 5 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 221 243 245 260 273 270 268 269 238 231 225 219 219 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 135 139 143 144 145 146 147 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 63 59 58 55 46 40 40 49 53 55 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 18 15 14 13 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 22 33 42 54 61 67 80 82 101 96 87 200 MB DIV 61 58 46 7 -16 -8 -19 30 54 48 72 42 41 700-850 TADV 12 17 20 10 3 0 -5 0 2 9 14 25 32 LAND (KM) 234 223 210 183 133 175 236 336 465 593 717 840 1012 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.5 21.3 23.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 158.0 158.0 158.0 158.1 158.2 159.4 160.9 162.4 163.8 165.3 166.7 167.9 168.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 7 7 7 7 7 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 37 35 17 32 39 28 20 19 19 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -14. -21. -28. -30. -30. -31. -33. -38. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -22. -31. -47. -60. -70. -76. -76. -78. -78. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.4 158.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX