* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/24/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 93 84 75 60 45 35 29 29 30 30 29 V (KT) LAND 105 99 93 84 75 60 45 35 29 29 30 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 89 79 70 56 45 37 31 27 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 20 29 36 39 45 42 38 49 51 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 17 17 11 4 5 2 7 4 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 230 230 245 253 258 279 269 267 251 232 223 215 195 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 136 135 137 140 144 145 145 145 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 62 61 60 56 50 43 43 47 49 51 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 17 15 14 11 11 11 11 14 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 57 33 33 26 31 49 54 66 68 89 103 99 89 200 MB DIV 69 64 52 43 12 -34 -22 -4 36 70 33 61 49 700-850 TADV 11 19 20 22 4 2 -3 -3 -2 0 8 24 27 LAND (KM) 244 229 224 206 167 163 199 288 411 528 618 721 868 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.4 21.1 22.3 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 157.9 158.0 158.1 158.2 158.3 159.1 160.3 161.7 163.2 164.6 165.7 166.8 168.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 5 6 7 7 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 37 36 34 19 23 38 35 24 19 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -22. -28. -33. -37. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -28. -30. -29. -28. -29. -35. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -16. -12. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -21. -30. -45. -60. -70. -76. -76. -75. -75. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.0 157.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/24/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX